Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Caudillo vs Nate Mohr

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Nate Mohr
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Nate Mohr

9-7-0LightweightTeam Curran MMA

1524Average

Tale of the tape

17-17-0Record9-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamTeam Curran

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke CaudilloNow 1512
If they win+12→ 1524
If they lose-12→ 1500
Nate MohrNow 1524
If they win+15→ 1539
If they lose-17→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.75
Sig. strikes / min
3.79
24%
Strike accuracy
42%
8.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
55%
Strike defense
75%
0
Takedown avg.
0.45
0%
Takedown accuracy
50%
86%
Takedown defense
71%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Luke CaudilloNate Mohr
15001550200720082009201020112012

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
8 (89%)
1 (6%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (24%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Mohr63%
Luke Caudillo 37%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Mohr a 63% favorite over Luke Caudillo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1512 vs 1524), separated by just 12 points.

Luke Caudillo finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nate Mohr 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.