Combat Edge Intelligence

Luke Caudillo vs Nathan Trepagnier

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-17-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach67"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamAcademy of Martial Arts

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luke CaudilloNow 1512
If they win+12→ 1524
If they lose-12→ 1500
Nathan TrepagnierNow 1505
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.75
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
24%
Strike accuracy
TBD
8.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
86%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Luke CaudilloNathan Trepagnier
150020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (71%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
1 (6%)
Submission
2 (40%)
4 (24%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Trepagnier66%
Luke Caudillo 34%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 66% favorite over Luke Caudillo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luke Caudillo's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1512 vs 1505), separated by just 7 points.

Luke Caudillo finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.