Luke Rockhold vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record16-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'0"
77"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+17→ 1759
If they lose-15→ 1727
If they win+15→ 1769
If they lose-17→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1736 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke RockholdPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa70%
Luke Rockhold 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 70% favorite over Luke Rockhold in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1742 vs 1754), separated by just 12 points.
Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Luke Rockhold finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Luke Rockhold and Paulo Costa share 1 common opponent: Yoel Romero.
Luke Rockhold carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.