Luke Sanders vs Renan Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-0Record34-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach70"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nashville MMATeamPitbull Brothers
What's at stake
Luke Sanders is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1676
If they lose-19→ 1644
If they win+19→ 1617
If they lose-13→ 1585
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luke SandersRenan Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Sanders61%
Renan Barão 39%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Sanders a 61% favorite over Renan Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Luke Sanders holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1598, a 65-point edge.
Luke Sanders enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.
Luke Sanders finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.