Lyoto Machida vs Mark Munoz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record14-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
APAMTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Lyoto Machida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mark Munoz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1695
If they lose-14→ 1671
If they win+18→ 1657
If they lose-14→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lyoto MachidaMark Munoz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lyoto Machida60%
Mark Munoz 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Lyoto Machida a 60% favorite over Mark Munoz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Lyoto Machida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1639, a 46-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Mark Munoz 50%.
Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz share 1 common opponent: Gegard Mousasi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.