Lyoto Machida vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record27-14-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
APAMTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1697
If they lose-12→ 1673
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lyoto MachidaMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Maurício Rua60%
Lyoto Machida 40%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Maurício Rua a 60% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1685 vs 1691), separated by just 6 points.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Maurício Rua carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.