Lyoto Machida vs Phil Davis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record24-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
APAMTeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Phil Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1699
If they lose-10→ 1675
If they win+10→ 1749
If they lose-14→ 1725
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1665 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lyoto MachidaPhil Davis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Phil Davis75%
Lyoto Machida 25%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Phil Davis a 75% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Phil Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1739 to 1685, a 54-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Phil Davis 46%.
Lyoto Machida and Phil Davis share 1 common opponent: Yoel Romero.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.