Combat Edge Intelligence

Lyoto Machida vs Randy Couture

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Randy Couture
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Randy Couture

“The Natural”

19-11-0Light HeavyweightUFC

1721Good

Tale of the tape

26-12-0Record19-11-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
74"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight203 lbs
APAMTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Randy Couture is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
Randy CoutureNow 1721
If they win+11→ 1732
If they lose-13→ 1708

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.59
Sig. strikes / min
2.85
53%
Strike accuracy
58%
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.53
62%
Strike defense
59%
1.21
Takedown avg.
2.78
65%
Takedown accuracy
47%
76%
Takedown defense
58%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Lyoto MachidaRandy Couture
1700175020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
7 (37%)
2 (8%)
Submission
4 (21%)
13 (50%)
Decision
8 (42%)

Combat Edge model read

Randy Couture70%
Lyoto Machida 30%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Randy Couture a 70% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Randy Couture holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1685, a 36-point edge.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Randy Couture 58%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.