Combat Edge Intelligence

Lyoto Machida vs Ryan Bader

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ryan Bader
us

Ryan Bader

“Darth”

31-8-0HeavyweightPFL

1823Great

Tale of the tape

26-12-0Record31-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight232 lbs
APAMTeamPower MMA Team

What's at stake

Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+17→ 1702
If they lose-7→ 1678
Ryan BaderNow 1823
If they win+7→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1806

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.59
Sig. strikes / min
2.82
53%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.39
62%
Strike defense
72%
1.21
Takedown avg.
3.37
65%
Takedown accuracy
44%
76%
Takedown defense
81%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Lyoto MachidaRyan Bader
170017501800185020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
13 (42%)
2 (8%)
Submission
3 (10%)
13 (50%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryan Bader83%
Lyoto Machida 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 83% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1685, a 138-point edge.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.