Combat Edge Intelligence

Lyoto Machida vs Sam Hoger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Hoger
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Sam Hoger

“Alaskan Assassin”

10-4-0Light HeavyweightHoger MMA

1627Solid

Tale of the tape

26-12-0Record10-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
APAMTeamMiletich Martial Arts

What's at stake

Lyoto Machida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Sam Hoger carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lyoto MachidaNow 1685
If they win+10→ 1695
If they lose-14→ 1671
Sam HogerNow 1627
If they win+19→ 1646
If they lose-13→ 1614

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.59
Sig. strikes / min
1.07
53%
Strike accuracy
25%
1.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.25
62%
Strike defense
57%
1.21
Takedown avg.
1.12
65%
Takedown accuracy
38%
76%
Takedown defense
29%
0.40
Submission avg.
1.34

Trajectory

Lyoto MachidaSam Hoger
16001650170020092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

11 (42%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
2 (8%)
Submission
6 (60%)
13 (50%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Lyoto Machida54%
Sam Hoger 46%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Lyoto Machida a 54% favorite over Sam Hoger in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Lyoto Machida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1627, a 58-point edge.

Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Sam Hoger enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Sam Hoger 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.