Lyoto Machida vs Tito Ortiz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record21-12-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
APAMTeamTeam Punishment
What's at stake
Tito Ortiz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1699
If they lose-8→ 1675
If they win+8→ 1797
If they lose-16→ 1773
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1679 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lyoto MachidaTito Ortiz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tito Ortiz51%
Lyoto Machida 49%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Tito Ortiz a 51% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Tito Ortiz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1789 to 1683, a 106-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Tito Ortiz enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Tito Ortiz 71%.
Lyoto Machida and Tito Ortiz share 2 common opponents: Ryan Bader and Chael Sonnen.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.