Lyoto Machida vs Vitor Belfort
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-12-0Record26-14-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
74"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
APAMTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Vitor Belfort is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lyoto Machida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
If they win+11→ 1730
If they lose-13→ 1706
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1718 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1754 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lyoto MachidaVitor Belfort
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Vitor Belfort58%
Lyoto Machida 42%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Vitor Belfort a 58% favorite over Lyoto Machida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Vitor Belfort holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1685, a 34-point edge.
Lyoto Machida enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lyoto Machida finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Vitor Belfort 81%.
Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort share 1 common opponent: Gegard Mousasi.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.