Mac Danzig vs Tommy Speer
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-12-1Record21-7-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Danzig MMATeam
What's at stake
Mac Danzig is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Tommy Speer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1605
If they lose-15→ 1581
If they win+29→ 1548
If they lose-19→ 1500
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mac DanzigTommy Speer
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tommy Speer53%
Mac Danzig 47%Elo baseline: 39%
The Combat Edge model makes Tommy Speer a 53% favorite over Mac Danzig in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mac Danzig's way (39%).
Mac Danzig holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1519, a 77-point edge.
Mac Danzig finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Tommy Speer 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.