Mac Papalii vs Paul Varelans
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record9-9-0
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'8"
-ReachTBD
273 lbsWeight300 lbs
Battle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Mac Papalii is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Paul Varelans carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1576
If they lose-27→ 1528
If they win+18→ 1526
If they lose-14→ 1494
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mac PapaliiPaul Varelans
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii73%
Paul Varelans 27%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 73% favorite over Paul Varelans in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Mac Papalii holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1508, a 47-point edge.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paul Varelans 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.