Mac Papalii vs Ricardo Morais
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record10-4-1
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'8"
-ReachTBD
273 lbsWeight270 lbs
Battle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Nogueira· 1598 avg Elo · 7 rated
What's at stake
Ricardo Morais is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Mac Papalii carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1582
If they lose-21→ 1534
If they win+14→ 1619
If they lose-18→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1528 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mac PapaliiRicardo Morais
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii52%
Ricardo Morais 48%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 52% favorite over Ricardo Morais in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ricardo Morais's way (43%).
Ricardo Morais holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1605 to 1555, a 50-point edge.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Ricardo Morais 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.