Mac Papalii vs Takayuki Okada
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-0-0Record3-3-2
Super HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'0"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
273 lbsWeight286 lbs
Battle Box· 1575 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeam
What's at stake
Mac Papalii is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Takayuki Okada carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1577
If they lose-26→ 1529
If they win+26→ 1546
If they lose-22→ 1498
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1465 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mac PapaliiTakayuki Okada
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii70%
Takayuki Okada 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 70% favorite over Takayuki Okada in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Mac Papalii holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1520, a 35-point edge.
Mac Papalii enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Takayuki Okada 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.