Machi Fukuda vs Melissa Amaya
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record8-0-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'0"Height5'4"
61"Reach64"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
If they win+24→ 1686
If they lose-24→ 1638
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1494 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Machi FukudaMelissa Amaya
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Machi Fukuda53%
Melissa Amaya 47%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Machi Fukuda a 53% favorite over Melissa Amaya in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Melissa Amaya's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1662), separated by just 4 points.
Melissa Amaya enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Machi Fukuda finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Amaya 63%.
Melissa Amaya carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.