Machi Fukuda vs Tina Black
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-3-0Record15-4-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'0"Height5'4"
61"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1674
If they lose-16→ 1642
If they win+16→ 1676
If they lose-16→ 1644
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Machi FukudaTina Black
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Machi Fukuda56%
Tina Black 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Machi Fukuda a 56% favorite over Tina Black in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tina Black's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1658 vs 1660), separated by just 2 points.
Tina Black enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Machi Fukuda finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Tina Black 40%.
Tina Black carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.