Mackenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-5-0Record17-6-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'7"
63"Reach65"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
RVCATeamThai Brasil· 1661 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Mackenzie Dern is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marina Rodriguez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1748
If they lose-19→ 1716
If they win+19→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1662
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mackenzie DernMarina Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mackenzie Dern92%
Marina Rodriguez 8%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Mackenzie Dern a 92% favorite over Marina Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Mackenzie Dern holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1675, a 60-point edge.
Mackenzie Dern enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mackenzie Dern finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Marina Rodriguez 47%.
Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez share 6 common opponents: Gillian Robertson, Virna Jandiroba, Amanda Ribas and Amanda Lemos, among 6 in total.
Marina Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.