Macy Chiasson vs Marion Reneau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-6-0Record9-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'6"
72"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fortis MMATeamElite Team
What's at stake
Macy Chiasson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marion Reneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1628
If they lose-18→ 1596
If they win+18→ 1587
If they lose-14→ 1555
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Macy ChiassonMarion Reneau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Macy Chiasson75%
Marion Reneau 25%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Macy Chiasson a 75% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Macy Chiasson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1614 to 1569, a 45-point edge.
Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Macy Chiasson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Marion Reneau 89%.
Macy Chiasson and Marion Reneau share 2 common opponents: Yana Santos and Raquel Pennington.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.