Combat Edge Intelligence

Macy Chiasson vs Melissa Croden

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record8-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'11"Height5'10"
72"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Fortis MMATeamRaven House MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Macy ChiassonNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Melissa CrodenNow 1622
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
4.27
46%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.86
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
46%
Strike defense
59%
2.07
Takedown avg.
2.02
37%
Takedown accuracy
17%
73%
Takedown defense
67%
0.44
Submission avg.
0.34

Trajectory

Macy ChiassonMelissa Croden
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
6 (75%)
3 (30%)
Submission
1 (13%)
4 (40%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Melissa Croden60%
Macy Chiasson 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Melissa Croden a 60% favorite over Macy Chiasson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1622), separated by just 8 points.

Macy Chiasson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Macy Chiasson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Croden 88%.

Macy Chiasson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.