Combat Edge Intelligence

Mads Burnell vs Mike Santiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-6-0Record22-14-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
68.00"Reach41,0"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Arte Suave CopenhagenTeamTop Notch Fitness

What's at stake

Mads Burnell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Mike Santiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mads BurnellNow 1667
If they win+9→ 1676
If they lose-15→ 1652
Mike SantiagoNow 1590
If they win+15→ 1605
If they lose-9→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1617 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1568 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.28
Sig. strikes / min
3.44
42%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.58
51%
Strike defense
36%
3.45
Takedown avg.
2.66
47%
Takedown accuracy
50%
22%
Takedown defense
54%
0.38
Submission avg.
1.06

Trajectory

Mads BurnellMike Santiago
16001650170020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
7 (32%)
9 (47%)
Submission
11 (50%)
9 (47%)
Decision
4 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Mads Burnell72%
Mike Santiago 28%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Mads Burnell a 72% favorite over Mike Santiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Mads Burnell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1667 to 1590, a 77-point edge.

Mike Santiago enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mads Burnell finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Mike Santiago 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.