Mafalda Carmona vs Marion Reneau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record9-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
64.2"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Bulgarian Top Team· 1614 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamElite Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1582
If they lose-16→ 1550
If they win+16→ 1585
If they lose-16→ 1553
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mafalda CarmonaMarion Reneau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mafalda Carmona51%
Marion Reneau 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mafalda Carmona a 51% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marion Reneau's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1569), separated by just 3 points.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Mafalda Carmona finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Marion Reneau 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.