Magomed Ankalaev vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-2-1Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Gorets Fight Club· 1716 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryan Bader carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1831
If they win+13→ 1839
If they lose-11→ 1815
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1731 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1748 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Magomed AnkalaevRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Ankalaev76%
Ryan Bader 24%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 76% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1826, a 22-point edge.
Magomed Ankalaev finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.