Combat Edge Intelligence

Magomed Ankalaev vs Ryan Bader

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Ryan Bader
us

Ryan Bader

“Darth”

31-8-0HeavyweightPFL

1823Great

Tale of the tape

20-2-1Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
75"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
Gorets Fight ClubTeamPower MMA Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Magomed AnkalaevNow 1835
If they win+15→ 1850
If they lose-17→ 1818
Ryan BaderNow 1823
If they win+12→ 1835
If they lose-12→ 1811

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.65
Sig. strikes / min
2.82
53%
Strike accuracy
43%
2.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.39
56%
Strike defense
72%
0.79
Takedown avg.
3.37
22%
Takedown accuracy
44%
88%
Takedown defense
81%
0
Submission avg.
0.44

Trajectory

Magomed AnkalaevRyan Bader
180018502022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (50%)
KO/TKO
13 (42%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (10%)
10 (50%)
Decision
15 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Ankalaev75%
Ryan Bader 25%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Ankalaev a 75% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1835 vs 1823), separated by just 12 points.

Magomed Ankalaev finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.