Magomed Mustafaev vs Michael Dufort
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record17-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach74"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Fight Club Akhmat· 1683 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamH2O MMA· 1644 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1721
If they lose-16→ 1689
If they win+16→ 1714
If they lose-16→ 1682
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1608 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1569 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Magomed MustafaevMichael Dufort
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Dufort70%
Magomed Mustafaev 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Dufort a 70% favorite over Magomed Mustafaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Magomed Mustafaev's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1705 vs 1698), separated by just 7 points.
Michael Dufort enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Magomed Mustafaev finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Michael Dufort 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.