Combat Edge Intelligence

Magomed Umalatov vs Robbie Lawler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-1-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'11"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Eagles MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Magomed UmalatovNow 1779
If they win+16→ 1795
If they lose-16→ 1763
Robbie LawlerNow 1788
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1629 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.67
TBD
Strike defense
59%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.65
TBD
Takedown accuracy
64%
TBD
Takedown defense
65%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Magomed UmalatovRobbie Lawler
1750180020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

12 (67%)
KO/TKO
22 (73%)
2 (11%)
Submission
1 (3%)
4 (22%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Magomed Umalatov72%
Robbie Lawler 28%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Umalatov a 72% favorite over Robbie Lawler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Robbie Lawler's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1779 vs 1788), separated by just 9 points.

Magomed Umalatov finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.