Mahamed Aly vs Mouhamed Gueye
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record2-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"HeightTBD
77"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
One Way Martial ArtsTeamBulgarian Top Team· 1614 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1591
If they lose-24→ 1543
If they win+24→ 1594
If they lose-24→ 1546
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1455 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mahamed AlyMouhamed Gueye
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mahamed Aly60%
Mouhamed Gueye 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 60% favorite over Mouhamed Gueye in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mouhamed Gueye's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1567 vs 1570), separated by just 3 points.
Mouhamed Gueye enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mahamed Aly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mouhamed Gueye 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.