Mahamed Aly vs Zac Pauga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-2-0Record7-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
77"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
One Way Martial ArtsTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1592
If they lose-24→ 1544
If they win+16→ 1587
If they lose-16→ 1555
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mahamed AlyZac Pauga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mahamed Aly66%
Zac Pauga 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mahamed Aly a 66% favorite over Zac Pauga in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Zac Pauga's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1568 vs 1571), separated by just 3 points.
Mahamed Aly finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Zac Pauga 29%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.