Combat Edge Intelligence

Makhmud Muradov vs Trevor Smith

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trevor Smith
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Trevor Smith

“Hot Sauce”

15-10-0MiddleweightUFC

1600Solid

Tale of the tape

30-8-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
75"Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Makhmud Muradov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Trevor Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Makhmud MuradovNow 1736
If they win+8→ 1744
If they lose-16→ 1720
Trevor SmithNow 1600
If they win+22→ 1622
If they lose-10→ 1590

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1650 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.21
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
44%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.57
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.31
61%
Strike defense
51%
3.03
Takedown avg.
1.70
0%
Takedown accuracy
32%
78%
Takedown defense
61%
0.19
Submission avg.
0.72

Trajectory

Makhmud MuradovTrevor Smith
16001650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

19 (63%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
3 (10%)
Submission
9 (60%)
8 (27%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Makhmud Muradov92%
Trevor Smith 8%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Makhmud Muradov a 92% favorite over Trevor Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Makhmud Muradov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1600, a 136-point edge.

Makhmud Muradov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Makhmud Muradov finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.

Makhmud Muradov and Trevor Smith share 1 common opponent: Andrew Sanchez.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinTKO · 2021
Andrew Sanchez
LossDEC · 2016