Combat Edge Intelligence

Makwan Amirkhani vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
72"Reach70"
156 lbsWeight145 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamGlendale Fighting Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Makwan AmirkhaniNow 1621
If they win+16→ 1637
If they lose-16→ 1605
Melsik BaghdasaryanNow 1624
If they win+16→ 1640
If they lose-16→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
5.04
44%
Strike accuracy
60%
2.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.14
46%
Strike defense
57%
3.96
Takedown avg.
0
15%
Takedown accuracy
0%
36%
Takedown defense
73%
1.05
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Makwan AmirkhaniMelsik Baghdasaryan
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
5 (63%)
14 (70%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (25%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Melsik Baghdasaryan63%
Makwan Amirkhani 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Melsik Baghdasaryan a 63% favorite over Makwan Amirkhani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1621 vs 1624), separated by just 3 points.

Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Makwan Amirkhani finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Melsik Baghdasaryan 63%.

Makwan Amirkhani carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.