Makwan Amirkhani vs Shane Burgos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record16-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
72"Reach75"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamTeam Tiger Schulmann
What's at stake
Shane Burgos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Makwan Amirkhani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1642
If they lose-11→ 1610
If they win+11→ 1744
If they lose-21→ 1712
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Makwan AmirkhaniShane Burgos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Shane Burgos75%
Makwan Amirkhani 25%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Shane Burgos a 75% favorite over Makwan Amirkhani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Shane Burgos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1733 to 1621, a 112-point edge.
Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Makwan Amirkhani finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Shane Burgos 63%.
Shane Burgos carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.