Manny Gamburyan vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-10-0Record21-14-0
BantamweightDivisionWelterweight
5'5"Height6'0"
67.00Reach76"
135 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Nate Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Manny Gamburyan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1652
If they lose-14→ 1620
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Manny GamburyanNate Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz76%
Manny Gamburyan 24%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 76% favorite over Manny Gamburyan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Nate Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1634, a 39-point edge.
Manny Gamburyan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Manny Gamburyan finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.