Combat Edge Intelligence

Manoel Sousa vs Rashid Magomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-1-0Record25-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
70"Reach70,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Academia OctogonoTeamGorets Fight Club· 1716 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Manoel SousaNow 1756
If they win+16→ 1772
If they lose-16→ 1740
Rashid MagomedovNow 1750
If they win+12→ 1762
If they lose-12→ 1738

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1596 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.15
Sig. strikes / min
4.40
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
3.71
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
51%
Strike defense
55%
0
Takedown avg.
0.67
0%
Takedown accuracy
57%
60%
Takedown defense
89%
1.65
Submission avg.
0.17

Trajectory

Manoel SousaRashid Magomedov
1700175020252026

Win method breakdown

9 (60%)
KO/TKO
9 (36%)
3 (20%)
Submission
1 (4%)
3 (20%)
Decision
15 (60%)

Combat Edge model read

Manoel Sousa81%
Rashid Magomedov 19%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Manoel Sousa a 81% favorite over Rashid Magomedov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1756 vs 1750), separated by just 6 points.

Manoel Sousa enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Manoel Sousa finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Rashid Magomedov 40%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.