Mantas Kondratavičius vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75"Reach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1687
If they lose-16→ 1655
If they win+12→ 1684
If they lose-12→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1516 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mantas KondratavičiusRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mantas Kondratavičius and Rafael Natal within a point of even.
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1671 vs 1672), separated by just 1 points.
Mantas Kondratavičius enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mantas Kondratavičius finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.