Marcello Aguiar vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-16-1Record45-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
Barbaros Jiu-JitsuTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +3 while a loss costs more — Marcello Aguiar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+42→ 1526
If they lose-6→ 1478
If they win+3→ 1810
If they lose-21→ 1786
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1681 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcello AguiarMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes68%
Marcello Aguiar 32%Elo baseline: 87%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 68% favorite over Marcello Aguiar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (87%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1484, a 323-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcello Aguiar finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.