Marcello Morelli vs Roman Paulus
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-4-0Record11-7-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'10"
-Reach-
135 lbsWeight139 lbs
Uniq Fight Club· 1591 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamSpartakus Fight Gym· 1623 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
If they win+16→ 1603
If they lose-16→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1502 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcello MorelliRoman Paulus
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roman Paulus58%
Marcello Morelli 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Roman Paulus a 58% favorite over Marcello Morelli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1587), separated by just 3 points.
Marcello Morelli enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Marcello Morelli finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Roman Paulus 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.