Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcelo Golm vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-6-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
42,5"Reach77.50
266 lbsWeight266 lbs
Corinthians MMATeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Timothy Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Marcelo Golm carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcelo GolmNow 1548
If they win+18→ 1566
If they lose-14→ 1534
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+21→ 1607
If they lose-27→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
58%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.30
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
46%
Strike defense
44%
0.45
Takedown avg.
1.09
50%
Takedown accuracy
24%
88%
Takedown defense
69%
0.45
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Marcelo GolmTimothy Johnson
15501600201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

7 (70%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
3 (30%)
Submission
3 (17%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Timothy Johnson66%
Marcelo Golm 34%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Timothy Johnson a 66% favorite over Marcelo Golm in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Timothy Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1586 to 1548, a 38-point edge.

Marcelo Golm enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marcelo Golm finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.