Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcelo Mello vs Nonato Junior

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

1-0-0Record19-13-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'7"Height5'7"
TBDReach-
169 lbsWeight161 lbs
TeamGameness Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcelo MelloNow 1531
If they win+24→ 1555
If they lose-24→ 1507
Nonato JuniorNow 1532
If they win+12→ 1544
If they lose-12→ 1520

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1529 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcelo MelloNonato Junior
150015501600200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (100%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
0 (0%)
Submission
16 (84%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marcelo Mello and Nonato Junior within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1531 vs 1532), separated by just 1 points.

Nonato Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nonato Junior 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.