Marcin Prachnio vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-10-0Record34-18-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'2"
74"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcin Prachnio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1612
If they lose-11→ 1588
If they win+11→ 1648
If they lose-13→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1637 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcin PrachnioSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Alvey55%
Marcin Prachnio 45%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 55% favorite over Marcin Prachnio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1599, a 38-point edge.
Marcin Prachnio enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcin Prachnio finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Marcin Prachnio and Sam Alvey share 1 common opponent: Jimmy Crute.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.