Marcin Prachnio vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record34-18-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'2"
74"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Tatsujin DojoTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcin Prachnio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1624
If they lose-11→ 1600
If they win+11→ 1651
If they lose-13→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcin PrachnioSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Prachnio52%
Sam Alvey 48%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Prachnio a 52% favorite over Sam Alvey in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Sam Alvey's way (46%).
Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1611, a 29-point edge.
Marcin Prachnio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Prachnio finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Marcin Prachnio and Sam Alvey share 1 common opponent: Jimmy Crute.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.