Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Prachnio vs Stephan Bonnar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Stephan Bonnar
us

Stephan Bonnar

“The American Psycho”

15-9-0Light Heavyweight

1613Solid

Tale of the tape

17-9-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
74"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tatsujin DojoTeamOne Kick's Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcin PrachnioNow 1611
If they win+12→ 1623
If they lose-12→ 1599
Stephan BonnarNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1635 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.57
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
54%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.01
54%
Strike defense
52%
0.15
Takedown avg.
1.32
20%
Takedown accuracy
40%
54%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Marcin PrachnioStephan Bonnar
1600165020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

11 (65%)
KO/TKO
3 (20%)
1 (6%)
Submission
7 (47%)
5 (29%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marcin Prachnio and Stephan Bonnar within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1611 vs 1613), separated by just 2 points.

Marcin Prachnio enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Marcin Prachnio finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.

Stephan Bonnar carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.