Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-12-0Record33-10-2
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"ReachTBD
247 lbsWeight205 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1681 avg Elo · 29 rated
What's at stake
Maxim Grishin is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcin Tybura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1720
If they lose-11→ 1696
If they win+11→ 1733
If they lose-13→ 1709
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcin TyburaMaxim Grishin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Tybura52%
Maxim Grishin 48%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 52% favorite over Maxim Grishin in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Maxim Grishin's way (48%).
Maxim Grishin holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1722 to 1707, a 15-point edge.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Maxim Grishin 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.