Marcin Tybura vs Tai Tuivasa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-12-0Record14-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
78"Reach75"
247 lbsWeight265 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1669 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamLions High Performance Centre
What's at stake
Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Tai Tuivasa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1691
If they win+21→ 1619
If they lose-11→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1710 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcin TyburaTai Tuivasa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Tybura61%
Tai Tuivasa 39%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 61% favorite over Tai Tuivasa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1598, a 109-point edge.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tai Tuivasa enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tai Tuivasa 93%.
Marcin Tybura carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.