Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcin Tybura vs Timothy Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

27-12-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach77.50
247 lbsWeight266 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Timothy Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcin TyburaNow 1708
If they win+8→ 1716
If they lose-16→ 1692
Timothy JohnsonNow 1586
If they win+32→ 1618
If they lose-16→ 1570

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.56
Sig. strikes / min
3.43
48%
Strike accuracy
45%
3.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.08
55%
Strike defense
44%
1.30
Takedown avg.
1.09
33%
Takedown accuracy
24%
71%
Takedown defense
69%
0.11
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Marcin TyburaTimothy Johnson
1600170020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (37%)
KO/TKO
10 (56%)
7 (26%)
Submission
3 (17%)
10 (37%)
Decision
5 (28%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcin Tybura70%
Timothy Johnson 30%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 70% favorite over Timothy Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1708 to 1586, a 122-point edge.

Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.