Marcin Tybura vs Timothy Johnson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-11-0Record18-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'3"
78"Reach77.50
247 lbsWeight266 lbs
Ankos MMATeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Marcin Tybura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Timothy Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+8→ 1729
If they lose-16→ 1705
If they win+33→ 1619
If they lose-15→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1720 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1675 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcin TyburaTimothy Johnson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcin Tybura71%
Timothy Johnson 29%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcin Tybura a 71% favorite over Timothy Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Marcin Tybura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1586, a 135-point edge.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Timothy Johnson 72%.
Marcin Tybura and Timothy Johnson share 1 common opponent: Alexander Volkov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.