Marcin Tybura vs Tom Aspinall
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-12-0Record15-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
78"Reach78"
247 lbsWeight251 lbs
Ankos MMA· 1671 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamTeam Kaobon
What's at stake
Tom Aspinall is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Marcin Tybura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1722
If they lose-10→ 1698
If they win+13→ 1788
If they lose-19→ 1756
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1711 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1701 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcin TyburaTom Aspinall
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tom Aspinall73%
Marcin Tybura 27%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Tom Aspinall a 73% favorite over Marcin Tybura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Tom Aspinall holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1775 to 1708, a 67-point edge.
Marcin Tybura enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tom Aspinall enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marcin Tybura finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Tom Aspinall 100%.
Marcin Tybura and Tom Aspinall share 1 common opponent: Serghei Spivac.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.