Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Marcio Cabral
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1594 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamBonfim Brothers· 1595 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Marcio Cabral is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1493
If they lose-22→ 1445
If they win+22→ 1521
If they lose-26→ 1473
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcio Alexandre JuniorMarcio Cabral
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Cabral78%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 22%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 78% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Marcio Cabral holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1499 to 1467, a 32-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Marcio Cabral 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.