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Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Mitch Whitesel

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record17-29-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1573 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamWreckroom Athletics

What's at stake

Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Mitch Whitesel carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcio Alexandre JuniorNow 1436
If they win+19→ 1455
If they lose-29→ 1407
Mitch WhiteselNow 1361
If they win+15→ 1376
If they lose-9→ 1352

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Marcio Alexandre JuniorMitch Whitesel
13501400145020162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
7 (41%)
5 (31%)
Submission
7 (41%)
2 (13%)
Decision
3 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Alexandre Junior68%
Mitch Whitesel 32%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Alexandre Junior a 68% favorite over Mitch Whitesel in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1436 to 1361, a 75-point edge.

Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Mitch Whitesel enters on a 10-fight loss streak.

Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Whitesel 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.