Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Ryan Parker
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record4-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1594 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTeam XCWT MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1492
If they lose-23→ 1444
If they win+16→ 1492
If they lose-16→ 1460
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1658 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1532 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcio Alexandre JuniorRyan Parker
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Parker53%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 47%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Parker a 53% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1467 vs 1476), separated by just 9 points.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ryan Parker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Parker 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.