Marcio Alexandre Junior vs Warlley Alves
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record14-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReach72,0"
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Astra Fight Team· 1573 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRizzo RVT
What's at stake
Warlley Alves is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Marcio Alexandre Junior carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+36→ 1472
If they lose-12→ 1424
If they win+8→ 1634
If they lose-24→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 4 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Marcio Alexandre JuniorWarlley Alves
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Warlley Alves76%
Marcio Alexandre Junior 24%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Warlley Alves a 76% favorite over Marcio Alexandre Junior in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Warlley Alves holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1626 to 1436, a 190-point edge.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Warlley Alves enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Warlley Alves 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.