Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcio Cabral vs Travis Lutter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Travis Lutter
us

Travis Lutter

“The Serial Killer”

10-6-0Middleweight

1504Average

Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record10-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Bonfim Brothers· 1595 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamLion's Den Dallas

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcio CabralNow 1499
If they win+24→ 1523
If they lose-24→ 1475
Travis LutterNow 1504
If they win+24→ 1528
If they lose-24→ 1480

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1638 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
0.41
TBD
Strike accuracy
32%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.42
TBD
Strike defense
43%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.95
TBD
Takedown accuracy
24%
TBD
Takedown defense
30%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.65

Trajectory

Marcio CabralTravis Lutter
14501500200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
0 (0%)
Submission
7 (70%)
4 (31%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Cabral70%
Travis Lutter 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 70% favorite over Travis Lutter in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Travis Lutter's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1499 vs 1504), separated by just 5 points.

Marcio Cabral finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Travis Lutter 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.