Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcio Cabral vs Wataru Sakata

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record11-14-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight178 lbs
Bonfim Brothers· 1595 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamFreelance· 1622 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcio CabralNow 1499
If they win+24→ 1523
If they lose-24→ 1475
Wataru SakataNow 1496
If they win+12→ 1508
If they lose-12→ 1484

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1526 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcio CabralWataru Sakata
145015002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (69%)
KO/TKO
3 (30%)
0 (0%)
Submission
6 (60%)
4 (31%)
Decision
1 (10%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Cabral78%
Wataru Sakata 22%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 78% favorite over Wataru Sakata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1499 vs 1496), separated by just 3 points.

Wataru Sakata enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Marcio Cabral finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Wataru Sakata 90%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.